Population of Hong Kong

Hello again.

As a part of my Senior Research Project, I will be traveling to Hong Kong in order to interview the population there, first hand. However, before I go, I wanted to do some research on the population there; find out what it's like, any cultural differences they may have from mainland China and the Western world, etc.

In terms of population growth, Hong Kong has experienced relatively linear growth for the past few decades.    According to the World Bank, Hong Kong's population currently holds at around 7 million people, a medium sized city by Chinese standards. However, what it lacks in size it makes up in diversity. Hong Kong's extensive and multifaceted arts and cultural policy has allowed diversity to flourish. Besides just having large bodies of English and Chinese speaking populous, Hong Kong's Basic Law has allowed religions like Buddhism, Christianity, Islamism, and Hinduism to co-exist harmoniously.

Even with a population of 7 million, Hong Kong retains a low crime rate. The low violent and overall rate (1/100 and 1/1000 crimes per citizen, respectively) show the integration of the various groups, with almost no friction between groups despite living in such close proximity.

So Hong Kong is open minded, safe, welcoming, and thriving. Looking at it's 2012 net migration rate of 3.9/1000 migrants per population, it would be indicative of those statements. But that only shows part of the picture.

The fact is, Hong Kong's migration rate has fallen from 8/1000 in 2000 to 3.9/1000 in 2012. Why?

Guess you'll have to stay tuned to find out,
Victor

First Research Book

This week I have been reading "A Modern History of Hong Kong" by Steve Tsang.

Growing up in Hong Kong, Steven Tsang was a Louis Cha Fellow and University Reader at Oxford. During his time at Oxford (1997-2003) he served as the Director of the East Asian Studies Centre, making him incredibly knowledgeable on the subject of Hong Kong.

His book covers the time period from the Ming Dynasty to Hong Kong's return to China in 1997. So far, I have reached the point regarding the Treaty of Nanking.

Besides just covering the basics, such as "Hong Kong was given to the British as part of the Treaty of Nanking," Steve Tsang goes into the brutal history, analyzing the psychological and societal influences between the belligerent countries. For example, even though the treaty was signed by both countries, China and Britain had very different views of the treaty from societal points. While Britain viewed the treaty as economical, providing new ports for trade and allowing the British merchants equal footing; China viewed the treaty as completely diplomatic: a necessary evil in order to get rid of the "barbarians" from their land. As such, China had no wish to integrate the British economy into theirs and still made British merchants go through the pre-war cohong system. Due to these different view points, many tensions still arose, making future confrontations all but unavoidable.

I will be updating more in-depth about this book as it provides a very solid foundation to develop my project.

Till next time,
Victor

Hong Kong's Tumultuous Past

Hong Kong has been a part of China for over 2200 years. Ever since the Qin dynasty incorporated the territory around 220 BC, Hong Kong has been a integral trading port, economic sanctuary, and military outpost for China.

These properties weren't just lost to the Chinese though. Britain saw the obvious benefits of Hong Kong and in a brutal, but extremely lopsided, war, took Hong Kong from China with the Treaty of Nanjing in 1842. In 1898, the Second Convention of Peking ensured that Britain would hold onto Hong Kong for at least another ninety-nine years.

But they didn't. From December 1941 to August 1945 Japan occupied Hong Kong resulting in inflation and intense food rationing. It wasn't until a decade after that Hong Kong recovered.

In the 50's and 60's Hong Kong did more than just recover from WWII, it grew in leaps in bounds. New industries sprang up, the tourism trade formalized, manufacturing provided millions of jobs, construction grew, textiles grew. Everything grew.

Including domestic issues. The cultural revolution filled the streets with homemade bombs and riots. Factory jobs challenged the deeply ingrained Chinese family and cultural systems. However, by the 80's Hong Kong was generally booming and  recognized as one of the wealthiest cities of the far east.

Storm clouds gathered on the horizon though, as the ninety-nine year rule of Britain was coming to a close and the handover to China seemed inevitable. Emigration rates raised to historic highs as many moved to the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia. The financial world suffered policy changes and panics that led to Black Sautrday. Britain tried hard to keep Hong Kong, but the continuation of British rule after 1997 was unacceptable to China. Instead, changing tact, Britain worked to get special autonomous privileges for Hong Kong.

In April of 1990, Hong Kong Basic Law was accepted as the constitution for Hong Kong post-handover.  The new laws provided a unprecedented amount of democratic government for Hong Kong, yet many pro-democratic blocs still criticized it as not democratic enough.

Life after the handover has blossomed in some ways. Many people returned to Hong Kong after finding out China has kept its promise and maintained the system of "One Country, Two Systems," providing Hong Kong with a large degree of autonomy. The economy has grown in leaps and bounds, tourism remains high, while immigration and construction projects have ensured a dynamic city that constantly grows and evolves, ready to take on the future.

- Victor

What are Special Administrative Regions?

As some of you might know, Hong Kong is a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China.

SARs are territories that fall within the sovereignty of China, but are still separate. To date, there are only two SARs: Macau and Hong Kong. Both of these regions were returned to China in the late 1990's by the Portugese and British, respectively.

However, their return marked a problem for China. Mainly over how to administer these territories, which had been separate from China for over 100 years. Proposed by Deng Xiao Ping (邓小平) in 1982, a new article was added to the Constitution of the PROC, allowing "the state... [to] establish speical administrative regions when necessary." 

Under this new provision, the new territories were allowed a wide berth of autonomy. These new SARs could have their own government, monetary and financial systems, languages, sports teams, educational systems, and external relations. By allowing Hong Kong to exercise independence, many fears were eased and the transition from Britain to China flowed a lot smoother. Many things have stayed the same, but there have been changes.

Militarily, Hong Kong cannot have its own army. Its defense is provided by the People's Liberation Army, which is garrisoned within Hong Kong. That being said, laws prevent the PLA from interfering with local affairs, and PLA soldiers must abide by regional laws. The only times that PLA soldiers can be used for civilian and local matters is in times of crisis and only if Hong Kong requests help. However, the PLA runs many businesses in HK, despite a law drafted in 1996, prohibiting such acts. Loopholes in the law allow the PLA to push profits into the military and hold land in Hong Kong worth billions of dollars. 

Government wise, the Chief Executive (no longer called Governor) is appointed by a committee of 1200  business and professional leaders. The court system was also reformed. The Supreme Court was replaced by the High Court, which has more jurisdiction than its predecessor. 

Socially, many holidays changed. Holidays traditionally celebrated by the British, such as Queen's Day, was replaced by the Chinese holidays. At the same time, older holidays like Double Ten Day were also replaced. 

Those are just a few of the facts of SARs and how they relate to Hong Kong. I'm afraid I can't go into as much detail as I like for SARs would probably merit their own research project. If you wish to find out more, the internet is a great place to start. Also, I am sure that this is not the last time you will hear of SARs in relation to Hong Kong from me, so keep following!

Till next time,
Victor

Current Research

Hello readers,

Like I promised, today I will be sharing some of the research I have gathered so far.

I first wanted to focus on the macroeconomics side of the project. Looking at GDP, growth rates, immigration, saving's rates, etc. By getting a clearer understanding of what is occurring in economy since the transition, I can build a foundation of reasoning for my future research. Also, at the same time, I can use this knowledge to what I should be focusing on when I transition to researching on the middle class.

So what have I learned? Let's start with the go-to-numbers when economists want to analyze a market: the GDP. Hong Kong's GDP has (since 1966) always been growing, except for two separate years: 1998 and 2009. The decrease in 2009, where Hong Kong's GDP fell by -2.5% can most likely be attributed to the housing collapse started in the US, something Hong Kong had little control over, so I will be mostly excluding it from most of my final calculations. Meanwhile, the -6% drop in 1998 was the year right after Hong Kong's transition.

This is a really exciting find. Not only does it validate my thesis in a way, it also shows the massive trauma Hong Kong suffered. Now, to be fair, not all of this was due to the transition since all of Asia was going through a downturn at the time.

Besides the GDP though, I want research that's not completely numbers. On that end, I looked at the UN Human Development index. Now, what is this index? Well, to be blunt, it takes numbers and translates them into societal markers. It looks at stats like life expectancy, and figures out an output for the health, education, and living standards of that country. It is similar to GDP in some ways, but can vary widely from it. For example, Hong Kong is ranked at .898 (fairly good!) while it's Gross National Income per capita (average income) is at $45,000. Now Lichenstein has a rating of .905 HDI, but its GNI per capita is over $83,700. So, in terms of markers like GDP per capita and GNI per capita, Hong Kong and Lichenstein might be widely different, but their HDI are remarkably similar. The UN Human Development Index will allow me to look past the economic side, and really find what out what is happening on the societal side.

Hope you guys learned something today, I will be doing bi-weekly updates so make sure to check back soon!
- Victor

Small Changes

I have some recent updates for you today.

Yesterday afternoon, I met with my in-school adviser, Raeleen Grzybowski. Her knowledge in history and politics will no doubt play a critical role in the direction of this project.

During our meeting, Mrs. Grzybowski brought to my attention that my project, as it stands, is extremely diverse and varied to a fault. The many questions I am trying to answer in my Statement of Purpose (in the last post) are so different that it'd be nearly impossible to answer all of them in three months.


After much consideration, I will be narrowing my topic questions to three main points:

1) How much has Hong Kong's economy changed?
2) What are the causes of this change?
3) What are the effects on the middle class?

I chose these three questions because they still allow me to keep the heart of my original project while also guiding me with a learning trajectory. However, not only are these questions tied together, there are multiple ways of answering them. Economies can be analyzed in a multitude of ways, as well as its effects. This will ensure that my project is not superficial as there will always be deeper levels.

I will begin sharing my research tomorrow, so stay tuned!

Proposal

Senior Project Proposal

Victor Y. Wang

January 10, 2012

1. Title of Project:

Hong Kong: Connecting Its Tumultuous Past and Its Financial Future

2. Statement of Purpose:

Hong Kong formally returned to Chinese control in 1997. However, the period leading up to, and including this period, was marked with turmoil and anxiety. Housing prices fell, stocks dropped, and people fled (Also Sprach Analyst, 2011). However, over the past decade, Hong Kong’s economy has grown, on average, 4.1% (Global Finance, 2012). What changed to allow this growth to precipitate? How does the present expansion compare to expansion before the transition? Are they bolstered by the same markets, goods, and transactions? What role does the dichotomous views of the middle class play in this growth? I will analyze and research the past and current financial structures of Hong Kong in order to determine the effects the transition has had on Hong Kong’s middle class.

3. Background:

I am interested in this project because of my Western and Chinese heritage. In my past visits to China, I have noticed many lifestyle changes from my western-influenced lifestyle. Hong Kong, in this sense, is similar to me because of the intermixing of eastern and western cultures. But, whereas I am a singular body, Hong Kong is a large city, with many people and many external and internal forces. Therefore, these differences might not exist as harmoniously than in an individual. In order to analyze the intermixing of these cultures I need to look at the differences and nowhere are these differences in cultures more prevalent than in the middle class.

4. Prior Research:

There has been extensive research done on this subject by many organizations and people. Research now primarily has been focused on two branches: what changes there have been and how those changes have affected economic developments. Originally, when Hong Kong’s ownership changed hands, many experts predicted that Hong Kong would be immediately reduced to “just another Chinese city.” However, fifteen years on, and judging by the enormous economic growth, it has become apparent that this has not occurred. Even more so, according to CNBC’s Jonathan Fenby article, “Hong Kong 15 Years after Handover: What’s Changed?” Hong Kong has retained its unique identity amidst the storm of change. Meanwhile, Mark Medish of the Carnegie Endowment in his article, “Riding the Dragon: Hong Kong’s Economic Developments since 1997,” talks about how Hong Kong’s change will cause it to surge ahead and become one of the leading financial centers of the world. However, not all this change has been viewed in a positive light, as Zoher Abdoolcarim from Time Magazine discusses the existential angst existing in Hong Kong in “Hong Kong’s Future: Sunshine, with Clouds.”

5. Significance:

As Hong Kong continues its breakneck development and growth, it will continue to play a larger and larger part on the world stage. However, despite being a major financial player, it has had a tumultuous past and nobody can be sure how the dichotomous and bipolar views of the citizens/middle class will play in Hong Kong’s future. Will it result in instability or have the differences been exaggerated and Hong Kong is actually incredibly united? Only by extensive research can these questions be answered and Hong Kong’s role in the world become solidified.

6. Description:

The main types of research I will be conducting will be interviews and observations. I will utilize my internship at a Hong Kong investment firm as a lens to analyze what has changed since 1997. In particular, I will examine changes in investment rates, diversification, income and asset levels. I will also analyze this change from the perspective of new investments; where the investments are coming from, whether there has been an increase from mainland China, and how those investments have affected the investment bank. I will then interview people in the Hong Kong region to see how their lives have changed since the handover and whether they believe their lives are better as a result. As a part of the interview process I will separate the answers based on three groups: those who stayed in Hong Kong during the change, those who fled but came back, and those who came to Hong Kong after the change. As a final product, I will write an article detailing my findings and publish it.

7. Methodology:

My research will be conducted in a series of parts:

1. Intern at a Shenzhen Investment Bank (~3 weeks)
1. Understand how the bank works
2. How much change they have experienced since 1997
1. In terms of where their investments are coming from
1. Location: internally vs. externally
2. Classes: Middle class vs. upper class investments
2. In terms of what investments they are conducting
1. Foreign companies vs. Local
3. Have there been a big change or negligible change
1. Find out reasons for why and its effects
2. Travel to Hong Kong (~4 weeks)
1. Research history of Hong Kong’s growth, especially focusing on 1997 onward
2. Pass out surveys/interviews to a wide range of people: elderly/younger, rich/poor, etc
1. Sample survey questions:
1. Where you living in Hong Kong at the time of the transition?
2. How did you react to the transition? Did you move, did you save up, spend more, etc.
3. How much money do you save a month, is it more than a decade ago?
4. Do you go on more vacations compared to 1997?
5. Do you spend more compared to before 1997?
6. Would you say that you are happier with your current financial situation than you were two decades ago?
7. What is the biggest change you have noticed in your finances in the past two decades?
2. Compare and contrast the POV’s of those that were in Hong Kong, and those that moved here after 1997.
3. Compile data ( US ~ 6 weeks)
1. Research additional factors affecting Hong Kong’s Middle Class
1. Focusing more on general trends
1. Unemployment rates, GDP per capita, purchasing power, etc.
2. Possible outcomes:
1. There has not been a lot of regional growth, and people’s lives have not changed much
2. There has not been a lot of regional growth, but people’s lives have changed a lot
3. There has been a lot of regional growth, and people’s lives have changed a lot
4. There has been a lot of regional growth, but people’s lives have not changed much

8. Problems:

One problem would involve the sample size of those I interview/survey. Other major problems would revolve around dialect and language barriers. Another issue would be the accuracy of the information I will get from the interviews will be. Depending on the results, publishing them in China might be risky and instead, have to wait until I get back to the US.

Possible Solutions:

Language barriers can be solved by getting a translator, or using software. I can conduct the interviews via handout, with all questions preprinted on them and just hand them out, then have them mail/drop them off to me. This also helps solve the problem of people lying to me since they would not have to be talking in front of another problem and possibly exaggerate/feel exposed. Findings would have to be carefully scrutinized and only findings that are unbiased and neutral should be published during the stay in China. If any research turns up that might be censored, then it will have to wait until I’m in the US to be published.

9. Bibliography:

Abdoolcarim, Zoher. "Hong Kong's Future: Sunshine, with Clouds." Time. Time, 07 June 2007. Web. 06 Jan. 2013.

Brown, Mariah. “How Can Cultural Differences Affect Business Communication?” Demand Media. Houston Chronicle. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

China MidClass Consumers. Dir. HTKDC. Perf. Pansy Yau. Youtube. Google, 07 Dec 2012. Web. 12 Dec. 2012.

Farrell, Diana. “The Value of China’s Emerging Middle Class.” McKinsey Quarterly, June 2006. Web. 12 Dec. 2012.

Fenby, Jonathan. "Hong Kong 15 Years After Handover: What's Changed?" CNBC.com. CNBC, 30 June 2012. Web. 06 Jan. 2013.

Lau, Joyce H. "Has Hong Kong Changed?" In Transit: A Guide to Intelligent Travel. The New York Times, 17 July 2008. Web. 06 Jan. 2013.

Lopez, Linette. “The 10 Biggest Problems With Doing Business In China.” Business Insider: Money Game. Business Insider, 24 October 2011. Web. 14 Nov. 2012.

Kim, Eun. Yin and Yang of American Culture: A Paradox. 1st ed. Yarmouth: Intercultural Press, 2001. Print.

Medish, Mark, Stephen Cheung, Bernard Chan, and C.Y. Leung. "Riding the Dragon: Hong Kong's Economic Developments since 1997 -Carnegie Endowment for International Peace." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Carnegie Endowment, 18 June 2007. Web. 06 Jan. 2013.

Rapoza, Kenneth. “Within A Generation, China Middle Class Four Times Larger Than America’s.” Forbes. Forbes Magazine, 05 Sept. 2011. Web. 12 Dec. 2012.

"Smooth Hong Kong Handover Lifts Chinas Image." CNN World. CNN, 15 July 1997. Web. 06 Jan. 2013.

Street, Nancy. American Business In China: Balancing Culture and Communication. 1st ed. Jefferson: McFarland and Company, 2008. Print.

Tan, Ye. “Overestimating the Chinese Middle Class.” China.org.cn. China.org.cn, 03 Sept. 2010. Web. 12 Dec. 2012.

Wang, Helen H. The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World’s Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You. [S.I]: Bestseller, 2010. Print.

Whitman, John, and Maria Cascales. “Hong Kong’s Financial Crisis--1997-1998.” Harvard Business Review (1999): 1-15. Web. 8 Jan. 2013.

Wong, Kelvin. “Hong Kong Middle Class Bitter as Tycoons Choose Leaders.” Bloomberg. Bloomberg, 22 Mar. 2012. Web. 12 Dec. 2012.

Zarathustra. "Hong Kong Property: Did You See The Crash Coming In 1997?" Also Sprach Analyst. Also Sprach Analyst, 23 June 2011. Web. 17 Jan. 2013.